Kochi, 30 April (H.S.): The latest Today’s Chanakya exit poll has projected a tightly contested electoral battle in Kerala, with the United Democratic Front (UDF) holding a marginal advantage over the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) in the 2026 Assembly elections.

According to the survey, the UDF is expected to win between 60 and 78 seats in the 140-member Assembly, while the LDF is projected to secure between 55 and 73 seats. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP, is estimated to win between three and eleven seats. Notably, this is the only exit poll so far to indicate such a close contest between the two major fronts in the state.

The survey highlights a clear consolidation of minority votes in favour of the UDF. It predicts that around 62% of Muslim voters and 53% of Christian voters are likely to support the Congress-led alliance, reinforcing its traditional base.

On the other hand, the LDF appears to retain strong backing among key social groups, particularly the Ezhava and Scheduled Caste communities. The poll suggests that 47% of Ezhava voters and 49% of Scheduled Caste voters favour the Left. Additionally, the LDF is projected to receive 34% support from Christians and 33% from Muslim voters.

The BJP-led NDA is expected to draw its primary strength from the Nair community, with the survey estimating a significant 39% support among Nair voters. However, its outreach among minorities appears limited, with only 4% support from Muslims and 11% from Christians. The NDA is also projected to secure 32% of Ezhava votes and 18% among Scheduled Castes.

With such finely balanced projections, the Today’s Chanakya poll underscores the possibility of a closely fought election, where even small swings in voter sentiment could decisively influence the final outcome on counting day.

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Hindusthan Samachar / Arun Lakshman