Thiruvananthapuram, 25 April (H.S.): Kerala may witness an early onset of the southwest monsoon this year, with forecasts indicating its arrival over southern India by the end of May, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
While the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has hinted that the overall southwest monsoon rainfall across the country could be below normal, weather experts say Kerala is unlikely to be significantly affected. Scientists point out that regional variations often result in better rainfall along the western coast, including Kerala, even when all-India figures appear subdued.
“Meteorologists will be able to provide a clearer picture on whether the monsoon will arrive early or late only by the first or second week of May,” said M.G. Manoj, a scientist at the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research at Cochin University of Science and Technology. The monsoon typically sets in over Kerala around June 1, though a variation of about a week on either side is considered normal.
He added that a delay in onset does not necessarily mean a weak monsoon season, nor does a deficit in one region imply uniform shortfall across all areas. Current indicators suggest that Kerala and other parts of the west coast could receive favourable rainfall compared to central India.
Contrary to earlier concerns about the adverse impact of the El Niño phenomenon, emerging weather models indicate a promising start to the monsoon season, particularly during the May–June period. Weather expert Rajeevan Erikkulam noted that most models are showing positive trends, with the strengthening of westerly winds by mid-May likely to aid rainfall activity.
However, uncertainty persists for August, when the influence of El Niño could intensify and potentially affect rainfall distribution. Experts maintain that the first half of the monsoon is expected to be relatively strong.
Kerala is also likely to receive above-normal pre-monsoon showers in May, which could help ease prevailing heat conditions. The IMD said it is closely monitoring the evolving weather patterns.
Meanwhile, the state continues to reel under intense heat, with Palakkad recording a high of 39.7°C. Other areas including Punalur (38.6°C), Kozhikode (38°C), Vellanikkara (37.7°C), and Kochi airport (36.8°C) also reported elevated temperatures. The IMD has warned that temperatures are likely to remain high until Sunday.
Between March 16 and April 23, Kerala reported around 33 heatwave-related incidents, including one suspected sunstroke death, underscoring the urgency for relief through early rains.
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Hindusthan Samachar / Arun Lakshman
