Thiruvananthapuram, 07 April (H.S.):The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is set to make notable gains in Thiruvananthapuram district, emerging as a decisive player in the 2026 Assembly elections even as the Left Democratic Front (LDF) retains a marginal lead and the United Democratic Front (UDF) stays close behind, according to an opinion poll by the Centre for Policy and Development Studies (CPDS).

The survey, conducted between March 18 and April 4 with a sample size of 24,500 voters using stratified multi-stage sampling, points to a clear shift from the traditional bipolar contest to a triangular political battle in the capital region.

As per the projections, the LDF is likely to win six seats, followed by the UDF with five, while the NDA is expected to secure three key constituencies. Despite being third in the overall tally, the NDA’s gains are seen as strategically significant, particularly in urban and politically sensitive segments.

The vote share projections reflect a tightly contested election, with the LDF at 38.4 per cent and the UDF at 38.1 per cent, while the NDA commands 22.8 per cent. Analysts note that the near parity between the LDF and UDF is allowing the NDA to benefit from vote division in several constituencies.

The NDA’s projected victories are concentrated in Kazhakuttam, Nemom and Kattakada where senior leaders V.Muraleedharan ,Rajeev Chandrashekar and P.K.Krishnadas are contesting the polls.

While Kazhakuttam and Nemom show relatively comfortable leads for the alliance, Kattakada has emerged as the most closely fought constituency in the district.

In Kattakada, the NDA is projected to secure 35.2 per cent of the vote, narrowly ahead of the UDF at 34.3 per cent, with the LDF trailing at 30.1 per cent and others at 0.4 per cent. The tight margins underline how a split in opposition votes is enabling the NDA to gain an edge.

The findings suggest a broader political shift in Thiruvananthapuram, where the contest is no longer confined to a direct LDF-UDF fight. Instead, the NDA has positioned itself as a critical third force capable of influencing outcomes across constituencies.

The UDF is projected to win five seats — Thiruvananthapuram, Vattiyoorkavu, Kovalam, Aruvikkara and Neyyattinkara — but most of these are expected to be narrow victories. In Vattiyoorkavu, for instance, the projected lead is less than one percentage point, highlighting the intensity of the contest.

The LDF, meanwhile, continues to hold its ground in rural and semi-urban constituencies such as Parassala, Attingal, Chirayinkeezhu, Varkala, Nedumangad and Vamanapuram. Strong cadre presence and organisational depth are cited as key factors behind its resilience in these regions.

According to C. Rajeev, Director of CPDS, the survey reflects ground-level voter sentiment gathered through randomised field interactions across a cross-section of the population.

The poll also highlights shifting voter dynamics, with women voters — who constitute 52.4 per cent of the electorate — leaning towards welfare-oriented governance, while urban voters are showing increased openness to both the NDA and UDF. Rural voters, however, continue to largely favour the LDF.

With eight out of 14 constituencies projected to be decided by margins of less than five per cent, the election in Thiruvananthapuram is expected to be one of the closest contests in the state.

Political observers say the district is witnessing a transition, where micro-level vote swings, tactical voting and opposition fragmentation are playing a decisive role.

The overall trend indicates that while the LDF and UDF remain locked in a neck-and-neck battle, the NDA’s targeted gains could significantly influence the final outcome in the capital district.

---------------

Hindusthan Samachar / Arun Lakshman