Thiruvananthapuram ,09 June (HS) :

Kerala’s Hindu and Christian communities are witnessing more deaths than births, resulting in a negative natural population growth rate and raising concerns about the state’s long-term demographic future, according to an analysis of official birth and death statistics.

Data compiled from the Economics and Statistics Department’s annual reports between 2014 and 2023 show that both communities have entered a phase where births are no longer sufficient to replace population losses caused by deaths. Experts warn that the trend could eventually push Kerala’s overall natural population growth rate into negative territory.

The state’s overall natural growth rate remained positive at 0.249 per cent in 2023, largely due to the Muslim community continuing to record more births than deaths. However, the natural growth rate among Hindus stood at minus 0.115 per cent, while Christians recorded minus 0.084 per cent.

A negative natural growth rate indicates that a community can no longer sustain its population through births alone. For Hindus, 2023 marked the second consecutive year of negative growth after the rate first fell below zero in 2022. Christians have been in the negative zone since 2021.

Demographer Dr. Anil Chandran S., Assistant Professor in the Department of Demography at the University of Kerala, said the decline in population growth among Hindus and Christians had begun decades ago, particularly among socially and economically advanced sections of society.

He noted that projections indicate Kerala’s overall natural growth rate could turn negative by 2041. As the state ages and the proportion of elderly residents increases, communities that have already entered negative growth are likely to experience the consequences first, including labour shortages, a shrinking working-age population and increased pressure on social welfare systems.

The Muslim community continues to maintain a positive natural growth rate, but it too is experiencing a steady decline. The rate fell by about 35 per cent over the past decade, from 1.898 per cent in 2014 to 1.229 per cent in 2023.

Births among Hindus declined by nearly 31 per cent during the period, from 231,031 in 2014 to 158,399 in 2023, while deaths rose from 150,159 to 180,971. Among Christians, births fell by 32 per cent from 83,616 to 56,810, while deaths increased by 24 per cent from 50,095 to 62,338.

Among Muslims, births declined by 19.3 per cent, from 218,437 to 176,312, while deaths increased by 28.1 per cent from 46,468 to 59,541. Despite the decline, the community continues to record substantially more births than deaths, helping keep Kerala’s overall population growth rate in positive territory for now.

Experts, however, caution that if current trends continue, all communities in Kerala could eventually face declining natural population growth in the coming decades.

Hindusthan Samachar / Arun Lakshman