New Delhi, May 29 (H.S.): The India Meteorological Department on Friday warned that the 2026 southwest monsoon is likely to remain weaker than normal, according to its second-stage long-range forecast released for the season. The weather department also predicted severe heatwave conditions and intense summer temperatures during June.

Dr. M. Ravichandran and Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra shared the weather forecasts during a press conference held in New Delhi on Friday.

The Secretary stated that the country is expected to receive nearly 90 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the June-September 2026 monsoon season. According to the forecast, the monsoon this year is likely to remain below normal. He added that the probability of below-normal rainfall is the highest at 84 percent. Based on data from 1971 to 2020, the average monsoon rainfall in the country is considered to be 87 centimetres. He warned that deficient rainfall could aggravate challenges related to agriculture, water scarcity, and extreme heat conditions.

According to Dr. Ravichandran’s forecast, most parts of the country are likely to receive below-normal rainfall. However, northwestern India, northeastern India, eastern peninsular regions, and some parts of east-central India may receive above-normal rainfall.

The Secretary further stated that the probability of below-normal rainfall stands at 46 percent for northwestern India, 43 percent for central India, and 45 percent for southern peninsular India. Northeastern India is expected to witness either normal or below-normal rainfall. Similarly, the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ) is also likely to receive deficient rainfall. In addition, average rainfall across the country during June 2026 is expected to remain below normal, except for parts of northwestern India, northeastern India, and southern India, where good rainfall is likely.

He said the anticipated rainfall deficiency could adversely affect agriculture, reservoirs, power generation, and drinking water supply. It may also intensify drought-like conditions and heat stress in several regions.

Dr. Ravichandran said that most parts of the country are expected to record above-normal temperatures during June 2026. Several states are also likely to witness an increase in the number of heatwave days. The risk of severe heatwave conditions is higher in Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. However, Rajasthan and Jharkhand are expected to experience fewer heatwave days than normal.

He further informed that El Niño conditions are likely to develop over the Pacific Ocean. Typically, El Niño weakens the Indian monsoon. Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) currently remains in a neutral phase.

The Secretary advised state governments and district administrations to prepare in advance to tackle heatwave conditions and possible water shortages. He also urged people to avoid going outdoors during peak sunlight hours, drink sufficient water, and take special care of children and the elderly.

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Hindusthan Samachar / Jun Sarkar