Thiruvananthapuram, 14 April (H.S.):India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during this year’s southwest monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated, raising concerns particularly for southern states including Kerala.
The southwest monsoon, locally known as Edavapathi, typically spans from June to September and is crucial for agriculture and water resources. However, current forecasts suggest that rainfall across the country may reach only about 92% of the long-period average. According to IMD classifications, rainfall between 90% and 95% of the average falls under the “below normal” category.
Meteorologists attribute the anticipated shortfall to the possible formation of the El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to develop as early as June or July. El Niño is characterised by abnormal warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, which can significantly disrupt monsoon patterns over India.
Experts warn that Kerala could witness not only reduced rainfall but also higher temperatures due to this climatic shift. The latter half of the monsoon season is particularly expected to experience a decline in rainfall activity. Notably, the state has already recorded a deficit in pre-monsoon summer showers this year, adding to concerns.
Director of the State Meteorological Centre, Nitha K. Gopal, confirmed that both rainfall and temperature patterns in Kerala are likely to be influenced by El Niño conditions. However, the IMD has not yet announced the exact onset date of the monsoon.
Historical data shows that Kerala experienced heatwave conditions during previous El Niño years, notably in 2016 and 2024. Meanwhile, private weather agency Skymet Weather has offered a more optimistic outlook, predicting near-normal monsoon conditions for the state.
Amid rising concerns, the State Disaster Management Authority has cautioned the public against spreading misinformation related to extreme heat or weather alerts, warning that those found circulating false information could face legal action, including imprisonment of up to one year.
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Hindusthan Samachar / Arun Lakshman
