Mumbai, 16 June

(HS): The southwest monsoon of India has stalled after an early start, delaying

its arrival in Mumbai by more than a week. The slowdown has expanded rainfall

shortfalls, depleted reservoir storage, and heightened concerns about El Nino.

India's southwest monsoon has slowed drastically after a promising start,

generating new fears about rainfall shortages, water security, and the rising

effect of a stronger El Nino in the Pacific Ocean. Monsoon cloud cover is

decreasing throughout much of the nation, and rainfall activity has collapsed

since the seasonal rains arrived in southern and central India.

According to the

India Meteorological Department, the country got only 19.2 mm of rainfall

between June 4 and June 15, compared to a normal of 53.7 mm, leaving India with

a roughly 64% rainfall deficit during the time. The slowdown has been most

visible on India's west coast, where Mumbai is still waiting for the monsoon

despite approaching the second half of June. Monsoons often arrive in Mumbai

between June 9 and June 11. This year's arrival was delayed by more than a

week, with meteorologists anticipating another four to five days until the

system moves across the remaining sections of Maharashtra and the central

Arabian Sea.

According to weather forecasters, monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Gujarat

have substantially decreased. While some development is likely after June 20,

widespread and significant rain may not occur until the last week of June.

A shaky start has

left significant areas of the country dry. According to data from 723

districts, just 103 districts have had near-normal monsoon conditions thus far,

while 236 districts have had light rainfall and another 202 districts have had

extremely weak rainfall.

Mumbai is currently on course to have one of its driest Junes in nearly two

decades. This month, Santacruz Observatory got just 13.1 mm of rainfall, while

Colaba received only 5 mm. The city receives an average of 526.3 mm of rainfall

in June. If the current trend continues, June 2026 might approach June 2014,

when Mumbai received only 87.3 mm of rain, one of the lowest totals ever

recorded. The delayed monsoon is already starting to have an impact on water

resources.

Maharashtra's

reservoirs presently retain just approximately 24.5 percent of their complete

storage capacity, while other reservoirs in Gujarat have reported far lower

water levels. The Sardar Sarovar reservoir alone has a substantial storage

shortfall. Meteorologists ascribe most of the slowing to the absence of

powerful meteorological systems over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, both

important drivers of monsoon progress. At the same time, global climate

organizations recognized the emergence of El Nino conditions in the Pacific

Ocean. Historically, El Nino has been associated with lesser Indian monsoons.

Since 1950, India has seen 16 El Niño years, several of which were accompanied

by droughts and large rainfall deficits. With Pacific Ocean temperatures rising

quickly, analysts warn that El Nino's effect may strengthen further, providing

a threat to the monsoon season.

Hindusthan Samachar / Abhishek Awasthi