Washington, 14 November (H.S.): In a significant diplomatic development, US President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to come together for a rare trilateral engagement next week in Shenzhen, China, against the backdrop of mounting international tensions and uncertainty over global security arrangements.

The proposed meeting, scheduled for Thursday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, was confirmed by the White House on Friday. Bringing together the leaders of three major nuclear-armed nations, the discussions are expected to draw international attention, particularly amid growing concerns over nuclear proliferation, the Ukraine conflict and the continuing confrontation involving the United States and Iran.

The initiative comes at a crucial juncture for international arms-control diplomacy. The expiry of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between Washington and Moscow in February has removed the last major bilateral restrictions on the strategic nuclear arsenals of the two countries, ending more than five decades of treaty-based limitations.

Trump has expressed interest in negotiating a broader nuclear agreement that would include China alongside Russia and the United States. However, Beijing has so far resisted the proposal, arguing that its nuclear capabilities remain substantially below those of the other two powers.

Pentagon estimates put China's nuclear stockpile at more than 600 warheads, compared with over 5,000 each for the United States and Russia. This considerable disparity has remained a major obstacle to Beijing's participation in a comprehensive three-country arms-control arrangement.

Beyond nuclear security, the proposed engagement carries wider strategic implications. Trump has pursued direct diplomatic outreach to both Xi and Putin, seeking to maintain communication despite disagreements over trade, regional conflicts and military developments. His approach towards Moscow has remained particularly contentious, given Russia's continuing military campaign in Ukraine and its expanding strategic cooperation with Iran.

For Xi, hosting the proposed engagement would provide an opportunity to reinforce China's growing diplomatic influence and project its role as an important centre of international decision-making. Putin, meanwhile, stands to gain from the prospect of participating in high-level discussions alongside the American and Chinese presidents, reinforcing Moscow's claim to continued global significance.

The proposed talks have also generated apprehension in Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has voiced concerns that discussions concerning the future of the conflict could take place without Kyiv's involvement. Such a possibility has raised questions about whether the three powers might attempt to influence the course of negotiations over Ukraine's future.

The gathering could also create an interesting diplomatic contrast with the broader APEC agenda. China is seeking to use the summit to promote economic integration, trade cooperation and multilateral engagement among its 21 member economies. However, the presence of three influential nuclear powers at a separate high-level meeting could overshadow the economic discussions.

China's relationship with Russia is another significant factor shaping the diplomatic landscape. Since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Beijing has expanded its purchases of Russian energy and maintained substantial economic and technological cooperation with Moscow, despite pressure from Western governments to distance itself from the Kremlin.

The personal rapport between the three leaders is also expected to influence the atmosphere surrounding the engagement. Xi and Putin have developed a close relationship over the past decade, holding more than 40 meetings since 2013. Trump has also met Putin and Xi on several occasions, although their bilateral relationships have experienced considerable fluctuations.

The proposed meeting has prompted comparisons with the historic Yalta Conference of 1945, when the leaders of the United States, Britain and the Soviet Union discussed the post-war international order. However, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has cautioned against drawing such parallels, maintaining that any understanding reached in Shenzhen would not be binding on countries outside the discussions.

The APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting is scheduled to take place in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19. The proposed trilateral engagement is expected to add a major geopolitical dimension to China's hosting of the international gathering.

Hindusthan Samachar / Jun Sarkar