Thiruvananthapuram, 20 August (H.S.):

The BJP's position could determine whether the CPM retains a Rajya Sabha seat from Kerala when three vacancies arise next April, as the Left lacks the numbers to win on its own.

The terms of Muslim League MP P.V. Abdul Wahab and CPM members John Brittas and V. Sivadasan will end on April 23, 2027. Based on the present composition of the 140-member Kerala Assembly, the UDF, with 102 legislators, can win two seats. The contest for the remaining seat, however, will be close.

If all 140 MLAs cast valid votes, a candidate will require 36 first-preference votes to win. The LDF has 35 MLAs and will need one additional vote to secure the third seat. The BJP, which has three members in the Assembly, could play a decisive role.

If the three BJP legislators abstain, the number of valid votes will fall to 137, reducing the winning quota to 35. This would enable the LDF to secure the seat with its strength.

The BJP faces a dilemma over whether to participate in the election. Although it lacks the numbers to elect a candidate, either voting or abstaining could influence the result. The CPM could prevail if it receives an additional vote through cross-voting.

A BJP abstention benefiting the CPM would, however, expose both parties to allegations of a tacit understanding. The UDF is likely to use such an outcome to reinforce its charge of covert cooperation between the CPM and the BJP.

A CPM Central Committee member said the party had maintained that it would not seek BJP support, while acknowledging that the situation was difficult and unexpected developments were possible in politics.

Kerala has witnessed decisive cross-voting before. In 1964, independent candidate Saleh Mohammed Sait won a Rajya Sabha election after receiving votes from Congress legislators.

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Hindusthan Samachar / Arun Lakshman