Chennai, 11 Oct (H.S.):

The northeast monsoon is likely to set in over Tamil Nadu around October 17 or 18, raising hopes of relief from deficient rainfall and replenishment of rapidly declining water resources across the State.

The Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) has forecast a gradual decline in temperatures from October 16, as increasing cloud cover and moisture begin to ease the heat prevailing during the transition between the southwest and northeast monsoons.

The southwest monsoon is expected to withdraw completely from the southern peninsula by October 15. Its retreat could create favourable conditions for winds to reverse direction, paving the way for the arrival of the northeast monsoon in the following days.

An upper air cyclonic circulation is likely to develop over the Andaman Sea around October 11. This could lead to the formation of a low pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal around October 13.

V.R. Durai, Head of the Regional Weather Forecasting Centre at the RMC, said officials were monitoring the prospective weather system to assess its intensity and movement.

A movement towards land, particularly the Tamil Nadu coast, could strengthen conditions for winds to turn northeasterly and potentially hasten the monsoon’s onset, he explained.

However, weather models currently suggest that the system is unlikely to strengthen beyond a low pressure area. Its eventual track will be important in determining how it influences the changing wind pattern.

Meanwhile, some areas, especially north interior Tamil Nadu, could continue to record above normal temperatures until October 14, with the State still in the monsoon transition phase.

The anticipated increase in moisture and cloud cover after October 16 is expected to bring temperatures down gradually.

The projected onset dates remain dependent on the southwest monsoon’s withdrawal and the development and movement of the weather system over the Bay of Bengal.

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Hindusthan Samachar / Arun Lakshman