Thiruvananthapuram, 01 Oct (H.S.):Kerala could witness sharp regional differences in rainfall during the northeast monsoon, with southern districts likely to receive more rain and northern areas expected to record below normal rainfall, according to the India Meteorological Department.

The forecast comes after a southwest monsoon that delivered just 1,446.5 mm of rain between June 1 and September 30. It was the seventh lowest southwest monsoon rainfall recorded in the state since 1901 and the fourth lowest since 2001.

Yellow alerts have been issued for Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, Ernakulam, Idukki, Palakkad and Malappuram. A rain warning is also in place for Idukki on Friday, while Pathanamthitta and Idukki face warnings on Sunday.

Although rainfall across the Indian peninsula is expected to remain normal during the October to December northeast monsoon season, weather experts caution that this broader outlook does not mean Kerala will receive evenly distributed rain.

The northeast monsoon is more localised and less predictable than the southwest monsoon. Rainfall in Kerala will depend largely on the formation and movement of low pressure systems and cyclones over the Bay of Bengal.

Even one or two cyclones following favourable tracks could substantially alter seasonal rainfall totals, experts said. Their movement will therefore be crucial in determining how much rain different parts of the state receive.

The prospect of northeast monsoon rain offers some relief after the weak southwest monsoon. However, the possibility of lower rainfall in northern Kerala means the seasonal outlook may bring varying benefits across the state.

Daytime temperatures are also likely to remain above normal during the coming season. Northeast monsoon showers typically occur during the afternoon or at night and are often accompanied by thunder and lightning.

The forecast points to a season in which regional rainfall patterns could differ considerably, despite a normal outlook for the peninsula overall.

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Hindusthan Samachar / Arun Lakshman